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India’s mobile services revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3%, rising from USD 27.7 billion in 2023 to USD 32.6 billion in 2028. This growth is primarily driven by the substantial increase in mobile data services.

The India Mobile Broadband Forecast Pack (Q1-2024) from GlobalData indicates that mobile voice service revenue will decrease at a CAGR of 2.1% between 2023 and 2028 due to the rising consumer preference for internet-based communication services and the resulting decline in average revenue per user (ARPU) for voice services. However, the growth in mobile data services is expected to compensate for the reduction in mobile voice service revenue during this period.

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Mobile data service revenue is anticipated to grow at a robust compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.1% from 2023 to 2028. This growth is fueled by the expanding availability of 4G and 5G networks nationwide, the increasing consumption of mobile data services, the ongoing rise in smartphone subscriptions, and the projected increase in higher-ARPU 5G subscriptions.

Hrushikesh Mahananda, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, said, “The average monthly data usage is forecast to increase from 16.4 GB in 2023 to 37.4 GB in 2028, driven by the growing consumption of online video and social media content over smartphones, on the back of data-centric packages offered by MNOs.”

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4G will continue to be the dominant mobile technology in terms of subscriptions through 2028, supported by operators' ongoing LTE network expansions. Meanwhile, 5G subscriptions are projected to grow at the fastest rate during the forecast period and are expected to account for about 45% of total mobile subscriptions by the end of 2028. This rapid growth is driven by continuous 5G network investments and expansions by operators, along with the increasing availability of 5G-enabled smartphones.

Mahananda added, “Reliance Jio will lead the mobile services market in terms of subscriptions through 2028 given its strong focus on 4G and 5G network developments and expansion across the country catering to the rising demand for high-speed services by customers.”

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